Royal LePage Raises Its 2026 Home Price Forecast — But Not Every City Gets the Upgrade
Royal LePage now expects a 2% national price gain by year-end 2026 — double its earlier forecast — but the gains are concentrated in Quebec City, Montreal and the Prairies while Vancouver and Toronto are still forecast to fall.
The forecast just got a little more bullish
Royal LePage has revised its 2026 home price outlook upward, now projecting the national aggregate home price will rise 2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344. That's double the firm's prior call of a 1% gain, a sign that the spring market carried more momentum into the summer than the brokerage had expected earlier this year.
For a market that has spent the past couple of years defined by uncertainty, a forecast revision like this matters less for the exact percentage than for the direction it signals. Royal LePage isn't calling for a boom — 2% is a modest, single-digit move at the national level — but it is now expecting more appreciation than it was previously willing to bet on.
The regional story is where the real money is
National averages flatten out a much more uneven picture underneath. Royal LePage's city-level forecasts show growth concentrated in specific markets rather than spread evenly across the country.
For homeowners and prospective buyers in those markets, the gap between the national 2% figure and their local forecast is significant — a Quebec City homeowner's expected equity trajectory, on paper, looks nothing like the countrywide number that tends to dominate headlines.
- Quebec City is projected to post the largest gain of any market tracked, at 8%. - Greater Montreal and Winnipeg are each forecast to grow 5%. - Halifax, Edmonton and Regina are each expected to see 4% growth.
Vancouver and Toronto are pulling the other way
The country's two largest and historically most expensive markets are heading in the opposite direction. Royal LePage forecasts the Vancouver region will see prices fall 3.5% and the Toronto region will fall 2%, both measured against late 2025 levels.
Notably, the firm says this decline is expected even though spring market momentum did carry into June in those regions. That distinction matters: a market can see active buyer and seller activity in a given season and still be forecast to end the year lower on price, if that activity isn't enough to offset the broader correction already underway in those two markets.
What this means for your money
This is general market information, not individualized financial or real estate advice — what a national or city-level forecast means for any one household's finances depends on factors this data doesn't capture, including timing, mortgage terms, and personal circumstances.
That said, the divergence itself is the headline for anyone tracking household net worth in Canada. Homeowners in Quebec City, Montreal, Winnipeg, Halifax, Edmonton and Regina are, according to this forecast, positioned for price appreciation over the year, while those in Vancouver and Toronto are forecast to see the value of their single largest asset edge down. For renters or buyers weighing when and where to enter the market, the same regional split applies in reverse: falling forecasts in Vancouver and Toronto could ease affordability pressure at the margin, even as it does the opposite for equity-minded sellers in those cities. Anyone making a decision based on these numbers should treat them as one data point among many, not a guarantee of what any specific property will do.
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Sources
General news and information, not individualized financial advice. Figures reflect the publication date.