CMHC Sees Weaker Home Sales and Falling Prices Through Rest of 2026
CMHC's mid-year outlook update points to fewer home sales and lower average prices for the rest of 2026, with rental vacancies also expected to climb in major cities.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's mid-year Housing Market Outlook update projects 457,200 home sales in 2026 at an average price of $675,200, down from 470,314 sales at an average of $679,543 in 2025. The federal housing agency expects prices to keep adjusting downward through the rest of the year as slower population growth, elevated borrowing costs and modest income growth weigh on buyers, with only a modest recovery expected afterward.
CMHC's baseline forecast still calls for GDP growth of just 0.7% in 2026, with weaker residential construction activity and strong import growth cited as drags on the broader economy.
Rental market softening too
The agency also expects rental vacancy rates to rise in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal as new supply comes online, which should slow rent growth in those markets. Condo starts are forecast to remain especially weak through 2028.
The update underscores a housing market still working through a slowdown rather than a rebound — general market information for readers to weigh, not a signal to time a purchase or sale.
More in Housing
Sources
- CMHC now sees home sales, prices declining in 2026 amid weaker market activity – BNN Bloomberg
- CMHC's Canada Housing Market Outlook: Summer 2026
General news and information, not individualized financial advice. Figures reflect the publication date.