CMHC Sees Home Sales and Prices Easing Through The Rest Of 2026

A Softer Housing Market, By The Numbers

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has revised its outlook for the national housing market lower for the remainder of 2026, and the update points to a market that is cooling rather than correcting sharply. In its mid-year Housing Market Outlook, CMHC now forecasts 457,200 home sales in 2026 at an average price of $675,200. That compares with 470,314 sales at an average price of $679,543 recorded in 2025.

Both figures move in the same direction: fewer transactions and a lower average price than the year before. For a market that many Canadians still associate with the run-ups of prior years, a forecast built around a decline in both volume and price is a notable shift in tone from the country's national housing agency.

Why CMHC Expects Prices To Keep Adjusting

CMHC attributes the expected downward drift in prices through the rest of 2026 to a combination of factors working together rather than any single shock. The agency points to slower population growth, borrowing costs that remain high, and income growth that is described as modest. Each of these affects how much buyers can and are willing to pay, and CMHC expects only a modest recovery in prices after this adjustment period, not a rebound back to prior levels.

The broader economic backdrop reinforces that cautious view. CMHC's baseline forecast still calls for GDP growth of just 0.7% in 2026, a modest pace that the agency links to weaker residential construction activity and strong import growth, both of which are weighing on overall economic output. A housing sector that is itself under pressure is, in this outlook, also acting as a drag on the wider economy.

Renters: More Supply, Slower Rent Growth

The outlook isn't limited to buyers and sellers. CMHC expects rental vacancy rates to rise in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal as new rental supply comes online in those markets. A higher vacancy rate generally means landlords have more competition for tenants, and CMHC's forecast links this incoming supply to slower rent growth in those three cities specifically.

That last point on condominium construction stands out for its time horizon. While the sales and price forecast speaks to 2026, the weakness CMHC anticipates in condo starts is expected to persist through 2028 — suggesting the supply-side effects of this slowdown, particularly in the condo segment, are expected to be felt well beyond this year.

• Rental vacancy rates are expected to rise in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal as new supply comes online. - Rent growth is expected to slow as a result. - Condo starts are expected to be especially weak through 2028, a multi-year signal rather than a one-year blip.

What This Means For Canadians' Money

For anyone tracking their own housing decisions against this backdrop, the CMHC update is general market information, not individualized advice, and it does not tell any particular reader whether to buy, sell, rent or hold. What it does offer is a clearer picture of the conditions national forecasters expect to see across the rest of 2026: a national market with fewer sales, a lower average price than last year, subdued economic growth, and, in three of Canada's largest rental markets, more available units and slower-growing rents.

The through-line across CMHC's forecast is one of adjustment rather than collapse — modest declines in sales and prices, a modest GDP growth rate, and a rental market gradually easing in specific major cities. Canadians weighing their own housing and financial decisions may want to watch how these national trends play out in their own local market, and to consult a qualified professional for guidance specific to their circumstances.

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